by Barry Murphy
Here are my 5 favorite MLB over/unders for 2012 (and 2 that I wish I didn’t put in):
Arizona D’Backs over 86.5 – Why? Gibby’s a winner. Even better rotation then last year with the addition of Trevor Cahill. They have the beast, Paul Goldschmidt, for the entire season. Added the gritty Jason Kubel. Get to play the Dodgers and the Padres a whole bunch of times. 90-72.
NY Mets under 72.5 – Why? Incredibly tough division… even the Nats are forecasted to win 84 games. Lost Jose Reyes. Johan Santana still not 100%. New starting SS, 2B, RF, CF, C. Still have Jason Bay. 69-93.
Texas under 92 – Why? Pitching! Lost CJ Wilson. Derek Holland is getting pounded… and he still has that creepy mustache. Neftali Feliz is already having shoulder issues making the adjustment to a starter. Yu is another unproven Japanese import. And then there’s the bullpen. Joe Nathan got rocked last year, and he’s their closer. Let’s not forget about how much the Angels have improved. 87- 75.
Cincinnati under 87 – Why? Brutal bullpen. Besides losing their closer, Ryan Madson, for the season… Nick Masset just got put on the DL… and Ramon Hernandez is no longer there to help. Dusty Baker… choke artist. 83-79.
White Sox over 75.5 – Why? The circus is gone. Ozzie and Zambrano may have their own reality show by mid summer. Rios, Dunn and Beckham are all hitting this spring. De Aza is a great young player who gets his chance to leadoff with Juan Pierre’s departure. Nice bullpen. Paulie! 79-83.
2 bets I wish I could take back:
St. Louis under 83.5 – Why take it back? Because St. Louis has this way of recreating superstars. Carlos Beltran will probably hit 30 HR’s like Berkman did last year. Adam Wainright is really good. Jamie Garcia is getting better and better. A full season of David Freese.
Why I hope I’m wrong: Jason Motte will have to close all year… not just in spirts. Tony LaRussa and his witchcraft have retired. Albert. Furcal blows!!!! Molina got paid… time to get fat. 82-80.
Minnesota under 73.5 – Why take it back? Ron Gardenhire usually finds a way. Morneau just had a torrid week including 3HR’s. Mauer looks good.
Why I hope I’m wrong: Carl Pavano is their ace. Lost Cuddyer and Kubel. An improved division… watch out for the Royals… I know, never thought I’d say that. 71-91.